چکیده :يكي از راههايي كه ميتوان با استفاده از آن به بهرهگيري مناسب از فرصتهاي سرمايهگذاري و تخصيص بهتر منابع كمك كرد، پيشبيني درماندگي مالي است. از اينرو، ارزيابي اثربخشي گزارشهاي حسابرسي در شناسايي شرکتهاي ورشکسته و مقايسهي آن با توان پيشبيني ورشکستگي توسط متغيرهاي مالي ميتواند مفيد باشد.. فرضيه زيربنايي به اين شرح است: اظهارنظر حسابرس مستقل در شرايط ابهام در مورد تداوم فعاليت (گزارش تعديل شده) ميتواند ورشکستگي در دوره مالي بعد را بهتر از متغيرهاي مالي بهصورت توأم پيشبيني کند. فرضيه گفته شده با استفاده از يک نمونه شامل 60 شرکت توليدي از شرکتهاي پذيرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طي سالهاي 1381 الي 1387 (7 سال) توسط مدل آماري لجستيک و آزمون مک نمار مورد آزمون قرار گرفت. نتيجه پژوهش بيانگر اين بود که متغيرهاي مالي بهصورت توأم و اظهارنظر حسابرس مستقل، هر دو توانايي پيشبيني ورشکستگي در دوره مالي آتي را دارند اما اظهار نظر حسابرس مستقل داراي برتري معناداري نسبت به متغيرهاي مالي بود.
چکیده (انگلیسی):One way that can be used to good advantage of investment opportunities and a better allocation of resources, is predicting financial failure or bankruptcy. The study tries to evaluate accuracy and effectiveness of the audit reports in identifying bankrupt firms, and compare it to predictability of bankruptcy by the financial variables. Criteria for diagnosis of bankruptcy companies, subject to article 141 of commercial law is. The Infrastructure hypothesis is as follows: Independent auditor's report in terms of uncertainty about going concern can predict bankruptcy in the next fiscal period better than financial variables simultaneously. The above hypothesis using a sample of 60 manufacturing companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during 1381 to 1387 (seven years) by logistic statistical model and McNamara test were tested. Results from this study suggests that financial variables simultaneously and independent auditor's report, both have the ability to predict bankruptcy in the next fiscal period, but the independent auditor's report is significantly superior to the financial variables.
چکیده (انگلیسی):One way that can be used to good advantage of investment opportunities and a better allocation of resources, is predicting financial failure or bankruptcy. The study tries to evaluate accuracy and effectiveness of the audit reports in identifying bankrupt firms, and compare it to predictability of bankruptcy by the financial variables. Criteria for diagnosis of bankruptcy companies, subject to article 141 of commercial law is. The Infrastructure hypothesis is as follows: Independent auditor's report in terms of uncertainty about going concern can predict bankruptcy in the next fiscal period better than financial variables simultaneously. The above hypothesis using a sample of 60 manufacturing companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during 1381 to 1387 (seven years) by logistic statistical model and McNamara test were tested. Results from this study suggests that financial variables simultaneously and independent auditor's report, both have the ability to predict bankruptcy in the next fiscal period, but the independent auditor's report is significantly superior to the financial variables.
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